Florida Today: Polls Show Florida Amendment 2 In Danger

Florida Today

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081008/BREAKINGNEWS/81008032/1086/rss07

Polls Show Florida Amendment 2 In Danger

BY PAUL FLEMMING • FLORIDA TODAY

October 8, 2008

TALLAHASSEE — The marriage amendment Floridians will decide in November has a chance to pass even though it now polls below the 60 percent required for approval.

A poll out today shows that of the six proposed constitutional amendments Floridians will decide in November, none now have the three-fifths support necessary for passage.

Amendment 2, which would define marriage as between one man and one woman only, remains below the approval threshold, but the director of Mason-Dixon polling said similar proposals in other states have shown that a big chunk of the undecided vote will cast ballots in favor of Amendment 2.

The survey showed 55 percent in favor, 34 percent opposed and 11 percent undecided on Amendment 2.

"In other ballot amendment and initiative votes on gay rights issues taken in other states, 'undecided' voters have generally broken strongly in the direction of the 'politically incorrect/anti-gay' position," said Brad Coker, .managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in Florida.

Mason-Dixon surveyed 625 likely voters earlier this week. Its poll has a 4-point margin of error.

Florida's Supreme Court made it easier on voters last month when they rejected three proposed amendments from the ballot and removed some of the most controversial ideas. Today's Mason-Dixon poll showed that in most cases voters remain on the fence about these relatively obscure proposals. For half of the amendments, more than 40 percent of respondents remain undecided.

But three of the amendments, the pollster said, could pull out enough support for approval if currently undecided voters break toward passage at the same rate as those who've already made up their mind.

Here's what the poll showed.

Amendment 1proposes to eliminate a World War II-era provision of the state's constitution that prevents foreigners from owning property in the state. The survey showed 37 percent support, 33 percent opposition and 30 percent undecided.

Amendment 3 would exclude hurricane-hardening improvements to homes from property-tax increases. The proposal has 29 percent in favor, 26 percent opposed and 45 percent undecided.

Amendment 4 would give tax breaks to land conserved from development. Of those surveyed, 37 percent support it, 19 percent oppose it and 44 percent are undecided.

Amendment 6, which would give tax breaks to commercial-fishing and marina property owners, got 33 percent support, 20 percent opposition and 47 percent undecided.

Amendment 8 would allow local-option sales taxes for community colleges. The survey showed 37 percent in favor, 40 percent opposed and 23 percent undecided.